Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."